IFS Insights: Ukraine and the Prospect of Future Elections

This insight aims to explore the current dilemma surrounding elections in Ukraine by analysing the public discourse and the challenges of organizing elections under wartime conditions.

Additionally, it examines key shifts in Ukraine’s political landscape since the onset of the full-scale invasion and offers projections for potential presidential and parliamentary election outcomes based on recent sociological survey data.

The insight is based on a desk study, drawing on the analysis of academic publications, media coverage, and Ukrainian legislation related to elections and the electoral process in Ukraine.

Takeaways

• As of today, Ukraine’s entire political system is overdue for renewal, as regular parliamentary, presidential, and local elections have been postponed due to the imposition of martial law following Russia’s full-scale invasion.
   
• A key indicator of democratic engagement regarding elections in Ukraine is the ongoing public and institutional debate. The topic is actively discussed both within government circles and across civil society and a societal consensus is gained: elections should be held only after martial law is lifted.
   
• Holding elections under martial law would likely violate constitutional principles of universal, equal, and direct suffrage due to security risks, the inability to ensure voting access for soldiers on the front lines and citizens abroad, and restrictions imposed by martial law.
   
• An analysis of current legislation and media discourse reveals several signs of institutional  reparation for elections in post-war Ukraine. Key among them are the increased activity of the Central Election Commission and ongoing work on electoral legislation. 
   
• There are clear signs that the influence of oligarchs on Ukraine’s political system has significantly diminished during the war.
   
• Although Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Valerii Zaluzhnyi currently dominate political forecasts, the outcome of the war, Zaluzhnyi’s unclear position on entering politics, and the potential emergence of new political forces led by other military leaders could significantly reshape the political landscape soon.