Russia’s Politicized Economy, Elite Dynamics, and the Domestic-Foreign Policy Nexus (RUSECOPOL)

Back in 2020, Russian president Vladimir Putin successfully changed the constitution in order to be able to rule until 2036. However, several signs pointed to his apparent lack of control. In the elite, there have always been conflicting interests, but the competition for power has become harsher as growth has receded the last few years. To generate growth, there was a need for reform, but reforms would change the power relations, threatening political stability. The countries of the Eurasian Union are subjected to Russian economic pressure, but this integration project is largely a failure. Putin, who often is seen as FSB's man, has so little confidence in the security services that he created a new National Guard subjected directly to himself - in part as a coup-proofing measure. All of this is well known for specialists, but none have connected these developments in order to see how they influence the policies. Our team of Norwegian and international experts on Russian economy, politics and security services is determined to change this. How do the business elite and the government influence each other? How are economic policies influenced by changes in the elite? How is foreign policy influenced by the elite's composition and vice versa? For two decades, Russia was governed by a loose coalition of elites with conflicting interests, but who are bound together by unwritten rules, prospects of financial gain, and with Putin as an arbiter. This arrangement is now changing due to Russia's new international position, massive sanctions, economic problems, and patriotic fervour. For the elite, the war and its consequences create discontent as well as increased pressure for conformity. The course of the war, Russia's place in global politics, Russia's domestic politics and economy, and the power dynamics within the elite are all inter-connected, and the RUSECOPOL team examines these topics in conjunction.