Book launch: Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

Tuesday, 3 December 2024 NDUC organised a book launch at Litteraturhuset, Oslo.

The authors present several differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example to illustrate the challenges enterprises face.

A key part of the book is a thorough evaluation of Gen-AI systems, such as ChatGPT and Bard/Gemini. The authors analyze how these systems can be used in scenario development and in relation to other business-relevant methods, such as ‘Red Teaming’.

By presenting an alternative scenario planning process, which includes the use of new software and AI tools, the authors argue that "Causal AI" may be better suited to foresight work than Gen-AI systems.

This book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.

Moderator Kjell Inge Bjerga, Director IFS, lead the audience through the topics by engaging in conversations with the authors Bruce Garvey and Adam D.M Svendsen while also facilitating Q&A session.

Book launch programme

00:00:07 Welcome by Vice Dean Jonas Bjørnebye, Norwegian Defence University College (NDUC)
00:05:27 Presentation of the authors, by Professor Kjell Inge Bjerga, NDUC
00:07:22 Presentation of the book by Associate Professor Adam D.M. Svendsen, NDUC.
00:22:29 Panel discussion and Q&A