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What do we actually know about what people in Ukraine and Russia think about war, governance and a possible peace deal?
As the war has turned into a stalemate, understanding popular attitudes in both Ukraine and Russia is essential for assessing resilience, regime stability and the prospects for war termination. But what do we actually know about what people in Ukraine and Russia think about war, governance and a possible peace deal?
On the 4 June 2026, we took a closer look at popular opinion and opinion polling in Ukraine and Russia.
We asked what the numbers can tell us, what remains uncertain, and how polling data should be interpreted under conditions of war and profound social disruption.
In Ukraine, popular opinion appears responsive to both internal and external developments, yet support for the war effort has remained high and largely stable despite the enormous human and material costs of resisting Russia’s aggression. This raises important questions about how Ukrainians understand the war, what they expect from their leaders and international partners, and how methodologically sound polling can be conducted during an existential war, especially when parts of the population live under occupation or have been displaced.
In Russia, opinion polls continue to show high support for both Putin’s regime and the war against Ukraine, although recent polls indicate a slight decline. Yet these numbers are difficult to interpret. Do respondents answer sincerely when criticism of the war and the regime can carry real risks? How should we understand apparent popular support in a society that is shaped by repression, propaganda and limited access to independent information? And as the war becomes longer, larger and more painful for Russian society, will people’s attitudes remain stable?
The two invited speakers discussed these and other questions about popular opinion in Ukraine and Russia, a factor that may, in the long run, prove decisive for the outcome of the war.
The seminar was hosted by the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) at the Norwegian Defence University College (FHS).
00:00:00 Welcome and introduction by Karen-Anna Eggen, associate professor and Head of Programme for Ukraine and Full-Spectrum Threats, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS)
00:06:01 Tymofii Brik, professor, Rector of Kyiv School of Economics
“Popular Opinion and Opinion Polls in Ukraine”
00:36:10 Kirill Rogov, founder and Director of Re: Russia
“Popular Opinion and Opinion Polls in Russia”
01:09:21 Brik and Rogov in conversation with Guri Tyldum, research professor at Fafo (Oslo)
What challenges does Ukraine face in fighting against Russia’s war of aggression? What domestic political challenges does the country encounter, how resilient is public support for the war, and how are Ukraine's defence and security policies evolving?
To shed light on these questions, the Programme for Ukraine and Full-Spectrum Threats is hosting the seminar series “Ukraine at War", which explores different aspects of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
